When is a Balloon Not a Balloon?
“Asked if officials have ruled out extraterrestrials, VanHerck said, ‘I haven’t ruled out anything at this point.’"
This year got off to a weird start when a Chinese spy balloon showed up over Montana. After shooting it down a few days later, the U.S. would go on to destroy another three of these “high-altitude objects” prompting questions, concerns, and a whole lot of speculation. For 18 glorious days the media played footsie with the idea that these strange objects – previously invisible to radar – might have had an extra-terrestrial explanation. One close friend of mine remarked that: “all the UFO people I know think these are balloons but now my mom thinks they might be Aliens.”
How did this happen? What prompted the UFO mania from outlets like Vice, Politico, and Business Insider? And, in the face of that speculation, why did so many fixtures of the UFO Community not buy into it?
Altitude + Size + Speed
Getting serious about UFOs can lead you to a pretty intimate knowledge of how military radars work. Unlike the all-knowing machines you might see in the movies, radars actually require a lot of human input to clear up the clutter and do their jobs effectively. Want an example? When NORAD was evaluated in 1981, its Attack Warning System was receiving 6,700 sensor hits an hour.1 And without applying some personal judgement, you would only expect that number to get worse as our technology got better and better.
When it comes to the “North American Aerospace Defense Command” (NORAD), staff generally calibrate their radars to look for objects at a certain Altitude + Size + Speed. This allows you to pick up the flight profile of, let’s say, a Russian Tu-95 Strategic Bomber, while ignoring the trash bags, kites, and flocks of birds that sometimes muddy the waters.2
But there is a problem. Because if you have set your radars to look for something the size of a bomber, flying at 45,000 ft, at approx. 440 miles an hour, it means that you have implicitly asked it to weed out an object the size of a bomber, flying at 45,000 ft, travelling slowly with the wind. It’s an understandable judgement call but it leads to the situation we found in 2023: Finding a series of strange objects that we had made “invisible” by choice.
The Five Observables
Ironically, one of the fixtures of the UFO Community who was not on board with an extra-terrestrial explanation was Luis Elizondo.3 As the former Director of the Pentagon’s “Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program” (AATIP), Luis had dedicated a significant portion of his career to looking for a moment just like this and you’d think he might be toward the top of the list of people willing to stir the pot.
But as I covered last week, Luis Elizondo is perhaps best known for a set of robust criteria that separate the signal from the noise when it comes to strange objects in the sky. His Five Observables are widely known to the UFO Community, applicable to these strange incursions, and, ultimately, indict almost none of them. As a brief summary, the Five Observables that tend to flag the truly extraordinary UFO cases involve:
Positive Lift – The ability to fly without apparent means of propulsion or lift.
Instantaneous Acceleration – The ability to reach a high rate of speed in a very short amount of time.
Hypersonic Velocity (Without Signatures) – The ability to travel faster than five times the speed of sound (3,700 mph) with no accompanying auditory or physical effects.
Trans-Medium Travel – The ability to seamlessly move through space, air, and water.
Low Observability – The ability to conceal from visual and sensor observation.45
With all the enthusiasm around these four objects that strayed into North American airspace, there’s rarely been a better time to test out The Five Observables and see what would have happened had they been applied to this UFO flap. The section below walks you through the key characteristics of each object so you can see what this looks like in practice …
The Five Observables Applied
(Incident #1) Chinese-Operated High-Altitude Balloon - Detected: Jan 28, Visual ID: Feb 1 to 4, Shot Down: Feb 4, Recovery Operation: Feb 4 to 17.67
Positive Lift - This object was aloft between 48,000-66,000 ft and conformed to traditional super pressure balloon architecture that could carry it to those altitudes.8 The craft was also observed to have rudders, propellors, and maneuverability that further explained its ability to generate lift.9
Instantaneous Acceleration - This object never achieved significant acceleration.
Hypersonic Velocity - While its speed was not disclosed, general comments and the flight profile of the object would suggest that it never travelled much faster than the wind.
Trans-Medium Travel - This object was only observed travelling through one medium (air).
Low Observability - The object made no attempt to conceal itself and was photographed clearly several times from the ground and the air. There were also no reports of sensor interference generated by the object.1011
(Incident #2) Alaska High-Altitude Object - Detected: Feb 9, Visual ID: Feb 9 and 10, Shot Down: Feb 10, Recovery Operation: Feb 10 to 18.12
Positive Lift - This object was aloft at 40,000 ft travelling between 20 and 40 mph. While some F-22 pilots indicated that they “could see no propulsion system” and that they could not understand “how it could possibly be staying in the air,” this conclusion was not endorsed on final assessment. National Security Council Spokesman, John Kirby, would indicate that the object was unmanned, did not appear to be self-maneuvering, and was “at the mercy of the prevailing winds.”1314 U.S. officials would later guess the object was “a type of airship.”15
Instantaneous Acceleration - This object never achieved significant acceleration.
Hypersonic Velocity - This object never travelled faster than approx. 40 mph.
Trans-Medium Travel - This object was only observed travelling through one medium (air).
Low Observability - Some F-22 pilots indicated that the object “interfered with their sensors” but other F-22 pilots disputed this claim. Pilots also disagreed on the shape of the object (which is why a description was never formally released) but all pilots did make visual contact with an object about “the size of a small car.”16
(Incident #3) Yukon High-Altitude Object - Detected: Feb 10, Visual ID: Feb 10 and 11, Shot Down: Feb 11, Recovery Operation: Feb 11 to 17.1718
Positive Lift - This object was aloft at 40,000 ft and resembled a small, cylindrical, metallic balloon (with a tethered payload underneath it).19 A later estimate would suggest it may have been an amateur radio Pico Balloon, whose architecture would clearly explain its ability to generate lift.20 Defense officials also considered a Russian or Chinese origin.21
Instantaneous Acceleration - This object never achieved significant acceleration.
Hypersonic Velocity - While its speed was not disclosed, general comments and the flight profile of the object would suggest that it never travelled much faster than the wind.
Trans-Medium Travel - This object was only observed travelling through one medium (air).
Low Observability - There were no reports of the object attempting to conceal itself from visual or sensor observation.
(Incident #4) Lake Huron High-Altitude Object - Detected: Feb 11, Visual ID: Feb 12, Shot Down: Feb 12, Recovery Operation: Feb 12 to 16.222324
Positive Lift - This object was aloft at 20,000 ft and appeared octagonal in shape with visible strings hanging off of it.25 A National Security Council spokesman would further indicate the object was unmanned, uncontrollable, and appeared to move with the prevailing winds.26 These characteristics would suggest traditional balloon architecture.
Instantaneous Acceleration - This object never achieved significant acceleration.
Hypersonic Velocity - This object never travelled faster than windspeed.
Trans-Medium Travel - This object was only observed travelling through one medium (air).
Low Observability - While radar did briefly lose contact with the object between Montana (Feb 11) and Michigan (Feb 12) there is no indication the object tried to conceal itself deliberately.27 On February 12, the United States was able to re-establish radar and visual contact with no reported issues.
As you can see, there are some titillating details in the description above, but nothing that truly points to an exceptional encounter. Even for those who were familiar with the Five Observables, claims of “unknown propulsion systems” or “sensor interference” didn’t stand up to scrutiny when you looked across all five criteria as a package. When I pulled that data into a crude heatmap, you can see that trend even more clearly:
To give you this assessment, I ended up drawing on stories from 20 different legacy media outlets, not one of which mentioned the Five Observables at any time. And that’s one of the biggest problems with this story. The UFO community might be aware of these assessment criteria but the major media outlets that should be informing the public are clearly not.
In that sense, advocating for an adult discussion on UFOs is as much about promoting media literacy as it is about encouraging the media to cover it fairly. Sometimes that means you’ll be able to rule out UFO explanations pretty quickly. But where that doesn’t happen, you might bolster the case and help the public really understand the difference between a balloon and something a little less down to Earth.
P.S. This article gives you the kind of assessment that I wanted to see back in February 2023. Did you find it helpful? If you want to read more quality coverage like this then:
Subcommittee of the Committee on Government Operations. Report, Failures of the North American Aerospace Defense Command’s (NORAD) Attack Warning System §. 83-620 O (1981). https://books.google.ca/books?id=Lo5Chva3cVgC&vq=6700&source=gbs_navlinks_s. Pg 118.
Hughes, Trevor. “NORAD Tracks Suspected Spy Balloons, Nuclear Missiles and Santa. What to Know.” USA Today, February 15, 2023. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/02/15/what-norad-what-does-stand-for-they-track-north-american-skies/11256353002/.
Barnes, Julian E, Helene Cooper, and Edward Wong. “What’s Going On Up There? Theories but No Answers in Shootdowns of Mystery Craft.” The New York Times, February 14, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/us/politics/us-shoots-down-object-michigan.html.
Knuth, Kevin. “UAP Flight Characteristics: The Five Observables.” Tim Ventura YouTube Channel, July 30, 2022. https://youtu.be/-FSaV3HleUY.
Carlson, Ryan. “Five Characteristics Unique to UAP’s.” To The Stars, Updated: January 21, 2022. https://tothestars.media/en-ca/blogs/press-and-news/five-characteristics-unique-to-uaps.
Cho, Kelly Kasulis. “Timeline: A Suspected Chinese Spy Balloon’s Eight-Day Journey.” The Washington Post, February 5, 2023. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/05/chinese-surveillance-balloon-timeline/.
Bertrand, Natasha, and Oren Lieberman. “US Military Calls off Recovery Operation for Chinese Spy Balloon and Search for Objects Downed over Alaska, Lake Huron.” CNN, February 17, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/17/politics/china-spy-balloon-recovery/index.html.
Xiao, Muyi, Ishaan Jhaveri, Eleanor Lutz, Christoph Koettl, and Julian E Barnes. “Tracking the Chinese Balloon From Space.” The New York Times, March 20, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/20/science/chinese-space-balloon-incident.html.
Pirlo, Faith. “US: Chinese Balloon Is Part of Large Spying Program.” Voice of America, February 8, 2023. https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/us-chinese-balloon-is-part-of-large-spying-program/6953672.html.
“Gazette’s Spy Balloon Photos Play Role in White House’s Response to China.” Billings Gazette, February 6, 2023. https://billingsgazette.com/news/gazettes-spy-balloon-photos-play-role-in-white-houses-response-to-china/article_b27cc99e-a4b1-11ed-b40a-07864ac915be.html.
Britzky, Haley. “Pentagon Releases Selfie Taken by US Pilot Showing the Chinese Spy Balloon in Air.” CNN, February 23, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/politics/pentagon-china-balloon-selfie/index.html.
Roush, Ty. “Everything We Know About The ‘High-Altitude Object’ Shot Down Over Alaska.” Forbes, February 11, 2023. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2023/02/11/everything-we-know-about-the-high-altitude-object-shot-down-over-alaska/?sh=7891e7fd2dc2.
Tangalakis-Lippert, Katherine. “The US Has Shot down 3 Suspicious Flying Objects in 3 Days. Here’s What We Know about the UAP Floating over North America.” Business Insider, February 12, 2023. https://www.businessinsider.com/objects-shot-down-over-alaska-canada-ufo-interfered-f22-sensors-2023-2.
Roush, “Everything We Know About The ‘High-Altitude Object’ Shot Down Over Alaska.”
Long, Colleen, Lolita Baldor, and Zeke Miller. “US Jets down 4 Objects in 8 Days, Unprecedented in Peacetime.” Associated Press, February 12, 2023. https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-charles-schumer-jake-sullivan-china-acc1a333326c50ee9649760c569c300f.
Britzky, Haley. “What We Know about the Unidentified Object Shot down over Alaska.” CNN, February 11, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/11/politics/unidentified-object-alaska-military-latest/index.html.
Newton, Paula. “US Jet Shoots down ‘Unidentified Object’ over Northern Canada.” CNN, February 11, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/11/politics/norad-additional-object-northern-canada/index.html.
“Yukon Search for Debris Suspended.” Royal Canadian Mounted Police, February 17, 2023. https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/news/2023/yukon-search-debris-suspended.
Lubold, Gordon, and Paul Vieira. “Flying Object Shot Down Over Canada on Orders of Biden and Trudeau.” The Wall Street Journal, February 11, 2023. https://www.wsj.com/articles/flying-object-shot-down-over-canada-on-trudeaus-orders-a9e638e9?mod=hp_lead_pos1.
Trimble, Steve. “Hobby Club’s Missing Balloon Feared Shot Down By USAF.” Aviation Week, February 16, 2023. https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/aircraft-propulsion/hobby-clubs-missing-balloon-feared-shot-down-usaf.
Anderssen, Erin, and Steven Chase. “U.S. Shoots down Flying Object over Lake Huron as Canada Works to Recover Wreckage in Yukon.” The Globe and Mail, February 12, 2023. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-canadian-team-working-to-retrieve-and-analyze-object-shot-down-over/.
Stewart, Phil, and Idrees Ali. “U.S. Shoots down Mysterious Object near Canadian Border.” Reuters, February 13, 2023. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-officials-believe-flying-objects-over-alaska-canada-were-balloons-schumer-2023-02-12/.
Liebermann, Oren, Kylie Atwood, Natasha Bertrand, Arlette Saenz, Phil Mattingly, and Haley Britzky. “US Fighter Jet Shoots down Airborne Object over Lake Huron on Sunday.” CNN, February 12, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/12/politics/lake-huron-high-altitude-object/index.html.
“Lake Huron Search for Debris Suspended, Search Efforts Continue in Yukon.” Royal Canadian Mounted Police, February 16, 2023. https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/news/2023/lake-huron-search-debris-suspended-search-efforts-continue-yukon.
Libermann, “US Fighter Jet Shoots down Airborne Object over Lake Huron on Sunday.”
Burke, Melissa Nann, and Riley Beggin. “White House: Shot-down Object Likely in Deep Waters of Lake Huron.” The Detroit News, February 13, 2023. https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2023/02/13/recovery-of-shot-down-object-ufo-in-lake-huron-hampered-by-choppy-waters-elissa-slotkin/69898750007/.
Martinez, Luis, Justin Fishel, Josh Margolin, Martha Raddatz, Molly Nagle, and Tal Axelrod. “Military Shoots down Another High-Altitude Object, over Lake Huron, Officials Say.” ABC News, February 12, 2023. https://abcnews.go.com/US/military-shoots-high-altitude-object-lake-huron-officials/story?id=97068247.